TY - GEN
T1 - A novel harmony search algorithm for one-year-ahead energy demand estimation using macroeconomic variables
AU - Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho
AU - Portilla-Figueras, Joé Antonio
AU - Muñoz-Bulnes, Jesús
AU - del Ser, Javier
AU - Bilbao, Miren Nekane
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - In this paper we tackle a problem of one-year ahead energy demand estimation from macroeconomic variables. A modified Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is proposed to this end, as one of the novelties of the paper. The modifications on the proposed HS include a hybrid encoding, with a binary part to carry out a feature selection, and a real part, to select the parameter of a given prediction model. Some other adaptation focussed on the HS operators are also introduced. We study the performance of the proposed approach in a real problem of Energy demand estimation in Spain, from 14 macroeconomic variables with values for the last 30 years, including years of the crisis, from 2008. The performance of the proposed HS with feature selection is excellent, providing an accurate one year ahead prediction that improves previous proposals in the literature.
AB - In this paper we tackle a problem of one-year ahead energy demand estimation from macroeconomic variables. A modified Harmony Search (HS) algorithm is proposed to this end, as one of the novelties of the paper. The modifications on the proposed HS include a hybrid encoding, with a binary part to carry out a feature selection, and a real part, to select the parameter of a given prediction model. Some other adaptation focussed on the HS operators are also introduced. We study the performance of the proposed approach in a real problem of Energy demand estimation in Spain, from 14 macroeconomic variables with values for the last 30 years, including years of the crisis, from 2008. The performance of the proposed HS with feature selection is excellent, providing an accurate one year ahead prediction that improves previous proposals in the literature.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84927730080&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-319-07995-0_25
DO - 10.1007/978-3-319-07995-0_25
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84927730080
T3 - Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
SP - 251
EP - 258
BT - International Joint Conference SOCO 2014 - CISIS 2014 - ICEUTE 2014, Proceedings
A2 - Klett, Fanny
A2 - Abraham, Ajith
A2 - Herrero, Álvaro
A2 - Baruque, Bruno
A2 - de Carvalho, André C.P.L.F.
A2 - Quintián, Héctor
A2 - Corchado, Emilio
A2 - Quintián, Héctor
A2 - de la Puerta, José Gaviria
A2 - Ferreira, Iván García
A2 - Bringas, Pablo García
PB - Springer Verlag
T2 - International Joint Conference on 9th International Conference on Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications, SOCO 2014 with 7th International Conference on Computational Intelligence in Security for Information Systems, CISIS 2014 and 5th International Conference on EUropean Transnational Education, ICEUTE 2014
Y2 - 25 June 2014 through 27 June 2014
ER -