Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants

Jesus Eduardo Ramirez Mendoza; Iraide L. Ropero; Itxaso Aranzabal Santamaria; Amaia Gonzalez-Garrido

doi:10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117

Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants

Jesus Eduardo Ramirez Mendoza
, Iraide L. Ropero
, Itxaso Aranzabal Santamaria
, Amaia Gonzalez-Garrido

Flexibility and advanced operation of electrical networks

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

The increasing occurrence of near-zero market prices in the wholesale electricity markets has raised concerns about the market capture rate and impact on the viability of Photovoltaic (PV) assets. This article aims to conduct a statistical analysis of the occurrence of near-zero day-ahead prices in the Iberian electricity market along 2024 and evaluate the correlation between prices and various technologies in the energy mix. There are 838 hours of the year below 1 €/MWh. During the spring months, day-ahead prices are significantly lower, especially at daylight. Looking at spring months, the findings suggest that wind power tends to decrease them. As can be concluded, there is a strong linear correlation between the thermal gap and market prices. Finally, this article addresses the impact of such prices on the profitability of PV plants. PV is not able to influence prices (negative Pearson coefficient), resulting in a capture rate of 65 %.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025
Publisher	IEEE Computer Society
ISBN (Electronic)	9798331512781
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117
Publication status	Published - 2025
Event	21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025 - Lisbon, Portugal Duration: 27 May 2025 → 29 May 2025

Publication series

Name	International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM
ISSN (Print)	2165-4077
ISSN (Electronic)	2165-4093

Conference

Conference	21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025
Country/Territory	Portugal
City	Lisbon
Period	27/05/25 → 29/05/25

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

Capture Rate
Energy Storage
Iberian Market
Near-Zero Prices
Photovoltaic Profitability

Access to Document

10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117

Cite this

Mendoza, J. E. R., Ropero, I. L., Santamaria, I. A., & Gonzalez-Garrido, A. (2025). Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants. In 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025 (International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM). IEEE Computer Society. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117

Mendoza, Jesus Eduardo Ramirez ; Ropero, Iraide L. ; Santamaria, Itxaso Aranzabal et al. / Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants. 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025. IEEE Computer Society, 2025. (International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM).

@inproceedings{b234b14f790a471893af1cb1852b0aec,

title = "Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants",

abstract = "The increasing occurrence of near-zero market prices in the wholesale electricity markets has raised concerns about the market capture rate and impact on the viability of Photovoltaic (PV) assets. This article aims to conduct a statistical analysis of the occurrence of near-zero day-ahead prices in the Iberian electricity market along 2024 and evaluate the correlation between prices and various technologies in the energy mix. There are 838 hours of the year below 1 €/MWh. During the spring months, day-ahead prices are significantly lower, especially at daylight. Looking at spring months, the findings suggest that wind power tends to decrease them. As can be concluded, there is a strong linear correlation between the thermal gap and market prices. Finally, this article addresses the impact of such prices on the profitability of PV plants. PV is not able to influence prices (negative Pearson coefficient), resulting in a capture rate of 65 \%.",

keywords = "Capture Rate, Energy Storage, Iberian Market, Near-Zero Prices, Photovoltaic Profitability",

author = "Mendoza, \{Jesus Eduardo Ramirez\} and Ropero, \{Iraide L.\} and Santamaria, \{Itxaso Aranzabal\} and Amaia Gonzalez-Garrido",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 IEEE.; 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025 ; Conference date: 27-05-2025 Through 29-05-2025",

year = "2025",

doi = "10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117",

language = "English",

series = "International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM",

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Mendoza, JER, Ropero, IL, Santamaria, IA & Gonzalez-Garrido, A 2025, Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants. in 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025. International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM, IEEE Computer Society, 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025, Lisbon, Portugal, 27/05/25. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117

Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants. / Mendoza, Jesus Eduardo Ramirez; Ropero, Iraide L.; Santamaria, Itxaso Aranzabal et al.
2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025. IEEE Computer Society, 2025. (International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants

AU - Mendoza, Jesus Eduardo Ramirez

AU - Ropero, Iraide L.

AU - Santamaria, Itxaso Aranzabal

AU - Gonzalez-Garrido, Amaia

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - The increasing occurrence of near-zero market prices in the wholesale electricity markets has raised concerns about the market capture rate and impact on the viability of Photovoltaic (PV) assets. This article aims to conduct a statistical analysis of the occurrence of near-zero day-ahead prices in the Iberian electricity market along 2024 and evaluate the correlation between prices and various technologies in the energy mix. There are 838 hours of the year below 1 €/MWh. During the spring months, day-ahead prices are significantly lower, especially at daylight. Looking at spring months, the findings suggest that wind power tends to decrease them. As can be concluded, there is a strong linear correlation between the thermal gap and market prices. Finally, this article addresses the impact of such prices on the profitability of PV plants. PV is not able to influence prices (negative Pearson coefficient), resulting in a capture rate of 65 %.

AB - The increasing occurrence of near-zero market prices in the wholesale electricity markets has raised concerns about the market capture rate and impact on the viability of Photovoltaic (PV) assets. This article aims to conduct a statistical analysis of the occurrence of near-zero day-ahead prices in the Iberian electricity market along 2024 and evaluate the correlation between prices and various technologies in the energy mix. There are 838 hours of the year below 1 €/MWh. During the spring months, day-ahead prices are significantly lower, especially at daylight. Looking at spring months, the findings suggest that wind power tends to decrease them. As can be concluded, there is a strong linear correlation between the thermal gap and market prices. Finally, this article addresses the impact of such prices on the profitability of PV plants. PV is not able to influence prices (negative Pearson coefficient), resulting in a capture rate of 65 %.

KW - Capture Rate

KW - Energy Storage

KW - Iberian Market

KW - Near-Zero Prices

KW - Photovoltaic Profitability

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105011070353

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DO - 10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:105011070353

T3 - International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM

BT - 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025

PB - IEEE Computer Society

T2 - 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025

Y2 - 27 May 2025 through 29 May 2025

ER -

Mendoza JER, Ropero IL, Santamaria IA, Gonzalez-Garrido A. Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants. In 2025 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2025. IEEE Computer Society. 2025. (International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM). doi: 10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050117

Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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