Enhanced prioritisation of prospective scenarios for power generation in Spain: How and which one?

Many countries are implementing energy policies that focus on the transformation of national power generation mixes into highly efficient and sustainable systems. In the case of the Spanish electricity sector, regulations applicable to existing coal thermal plants and the proximity to the end of the lifetime of nuclear power plants arise as critical concerns to be addressed. In this respect, a sensible energy strategy is required in order to fill the future gap of coal and nuclear power plants. Within this context, this work applies a novel methodological framework for the prioritisation of 15 energy scenarios formulated for power generation in Spain. In addition to a business-as-usual scenario, alternative ones are built based on potential restrictions on fossil-based technologies and lifetime extensions of coal and nuclear power plants. The novel multi-criteria decision analysis approach for enhanced, sustainability-oriented energy planning is based on the combined use of energy systems modelling, life cycle assessment, and data envelopment analysis. Besides conventional techno-economic results, the evolution of life-cycle indicators endogenously integrated into the energy system model of Spain is provided. The subsequent use of a dynamic data envelopment analysis model leads to identify and rank the most suitable energy scenarios according to sustainability criteria.