Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions

Michael Schulthoff; Philipp Anstett; Marvin Scherzinger; Jelto Lange; Martin Kaltschmitt

doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994

Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO₂ performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions

Michael Schulthoff^*
, Philipp Anstett
, Marvin Scherzinger
, Jelto Lange
, Martin Kaltschmitt

^*Corresponding author for this work

Hamburg University of Technology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Original language	English
Article number	103994
Journal	Transport Policy
Volume	179
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994
Publication status	Published - Apr 2026
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Access to Document

10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994

Future projections of Germany'sFinal published version, 8.25 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions",

author = "Michael Schulthoff and Philipp Anstett and Marvin Scherzinger and Jelto Lange and Martin Kaltschmitt",

year = "2026",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994",

language = "English",

volume = "179",

journal = "Transport Policy",

issn = "0967-070X",

publisher = "Elsevier Ltd.",

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Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO₂ performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions. / Schulthoff, Michael; Anstett, Philipp; Scherzinger, Marvin et al.
In: Transport Policy, Vol. 179, 103994, 04.2026.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions

AU - Schulthoff, Michael

AU - Anstett, Philipp

AU - Scherzinger, Marvin

AU - Lange, Jelto

AU - Kaltschmitt, Martin

PY - 2026/4

Y1 - 2026/4

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105026919943

U2 - 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994

DO - 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.103994

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:105026919943

SN - 0967-070X

VL - 179

JO - Transport Policy

JF - Transport Policy

M1 - 103994

ER -

Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO2 performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Future projections of Germany's car fleet - Development of a stock-flow cohort model under CO₂ performance standards and effects on annual fleet composition, energy demand and emissions