Influence of climate change externalities on the sustainability-oriented prioritisation of prospective energy scenarios

The implementation of externalities in energy policies is a potential measure for sustainability-oriented energy planning. Furthermore, decisions on energy policies and plans should be based on the analysis of a number of potential energy scenarios, considering the evolution of key techno-economic and life-cycle sustainability indicators. The joint interpretation of these multiple criteria should drive the choice of appropriate decisions for energy planning. Within this context, this work proposes –for the first time– the combined use of Life Cycle Assessment, externalities calculation, Energy Systems Modelling and dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis to prioritise prospective energy scenarios. For demonstration and illustrative purposes, the application of this methodological framework to the case study of electricity production in Spain leads to quantitatively discriminate between 15 prospective energy scenarios by taking into account the life-cycle profile of the transformation path of the power generation system with time horizon 2050. When compared to the application of the framework without implementation of external costs, the internalisation of climate change externalities is found to affect the ranking of energy scenarios but still showing the rejection of those scenarios based on the lifetime extension of coal power plants, as well as the preference for those scenarios leading to a high penetration of renewable technologies.