Methodology for the Geo-Referenced Urban-Scale Assessment of High Electrification Scenarios

This paper introduces a methodology for assessing high electrification scenarios and their impact on the electricity grid at an urban scale. The methodology uses a bottom-up approach with hourly resolution, starting with the georeferenced energy demand characterization of buildings. It then sets targets for decarbonisation technology deployment using urban-scale energy system analyses. These technologies are geospatially distributed using a weighted criteria allocation method and the AHP-TOPSIS method. The reference scenario's final configuration includes a baseline energy balance for each consumer and storage device management strategies. Power flow analysis is conducted, and solutions minimizing potential congestion in the electricity infrastructure are evaluated. Alternative scenarios include smart flexibility strategies and distributed solar generation. AI techniques are proposed for creating alternative scenarios, including PCA and clustering to identify representative cases. Technological solutions are then optimized for each case. A residential neighbourhood in Bilbao is used as a case study.