Modeling the integrated expansion of the Canadian and US power sectors

This paper presents the development effort that created a robust representation of the combined capacity expansion of the U.S. and Canadian electric sectors within the NREL ReEDS model. The abbreviated scenario analysis effort was designed to understand drivers behind various Canadian-U.S. power sector futures out to 2036. We model the impact of natural gas prices, increased Canadian hydropower deployment, and increased renewable energy (RE) penetrations. The sample results analyzed in this paper show the highly dynamic nature of the modeling tool as it performs a simultaneous optimization of the two countries' generation portfolios. The interactions between the two countries go beyond energy generation and also include firm capacity contracts and renewable energy certificates (RECs). The reference scenario results show a significant increase in wind generation in both the United States and Canada with a gradual retirement of coal and nuclear energy. The evolution of net energy and firm capacity exchange was very dynamic through the span of the analysis period and drives significant investment in transmission capacity across the border, almost doubling the existing capacity of transmission lines. The exchange of energy was driven by regional stories. ISO-NE and NYISO import energy throughout the analysis period. However, in the Western Interconnection we observed increasing imports to Canada from the United States, whereas the exchanges with MISO switched directions.