Performance Metrics for Probabilistic Ordinal Classifiers

Ordinal classification models assign higher penalties to predictions further away from the true class. As a result, they are appropriate for relevant diagnostic tasks like disease progression prediction or medical image grading. The consensus for assessing their categorical predictions dictates the use of distance-sensitive metrics like the Quadratic-Weighted Kappa score or the Expected Cost. However, there has been little discussion regarding how to measure performance of probabilistic predictions for ordinal classifiers. In conventional classification, common measures for probabilistic predictions are Proper Scoring Rules (PSR) like the Brier score, or Calibration Errors like the ECE, yet these are not optimal choices for ordinal classification. A PSR named Ranked Probability Score (RPS), widely popular in the forecasting field, is more suitable for this task, but it has received no attention in the image analysis community. This paper advocates the use of the RPS for image grading tasks. In addition, we demonstrate a counter-intuitive and questionable behavior of this score, and propose a simple fix for it. Comprehensive experiments on four large-scale biomedical image grading problems over three different datasets show that the RPS is a more suitable performance metric for probabilistic ordinal predictions. Code to reproduce our experiments can be found at https://github.com/agaldran/prob_ord_metrics.