Projection of the photovoltaic waste in Spain until 2050

This work presents the projection for future photovoltaic (PV) module waste mass in Spain to 2050. The possible effect of the Spanish PV installation boom occurred in the period 2007–2008 is investigated. The PV waste mass is assessed on the basis of cumulative PV capacity projections considering a 100% renewable Spanish scenario in 2050. The failure probability of the installed PV capacity is modeled by means of a Weibull distribution function. Four degradation scenarios are used to take into account different reliability levels of PV technology. The initial PV capacity projections are corrected by including the repowering needs of the PV installations to 2050. The obtained results suggest that repowering could mean around 40–47% of the annual PV power installed in Spain in 2050. From these data a cumulative PV waste mass of the order of 700,000 tonnes would be expected in 2050. In the period from 2020 to 2030, a cumulative PV waste mass around 100,000 tonnes would be obtained due to the end-of-life of PV modules installed in 2007–2008. This would mean that the Spanish PV recycling sector should be prepared to manage large amounts of PV waste mass earlier than other European countries. Nevertheless, a national PV recycling industry could suffer a period of waste scarcity after the repowering of the 2007–2008 PV plants would be finished. In 2050, this industry would recover around 75% of the raw materials required to manufacture the PV modules demand in Spain. The obtained results also suggest that the minimum recycling targets proposed in the Spanish Royal Decree on Wastes of Electric and Electronic Equipments (WEEE) should be revised to long-term.