TY - JOUR
T1 - Prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators through endogenous integration into a national power generation model
AU - García-Gusano, Diego
AU - Martín-Gamboa, Mario
AU - Iribarren, Diego
AU - Dufour, Javier
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 by the authors.
PY - 2016/12/1
Y1 - 2016/12/1
N2 - Given the increasing importance of sustainability aspects in national energy plans, this article deals with the prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators of the power generation sector through the case study of Spain. A technology-rich, optimisation-based model for power generation in Spain is developed and provided with endogenous life-cycle indicators (climate change, resources, and human health) to assess their evolution to 2050. Prospective performance indicators are analysed under two energy scenarios: a business-as-usual one, and an alternative scenario favouring the role of carbon dioxide capture in the electricity production mix by 2050. Life-cycle impacts are found to decrease substantially when existing fossil technologies disappear in the mix (especially coal thermal power plants). In the long term, the relatively high presence of natural gas arises as the main source of impact. When the installation of new fossil options without CO2 capture is forbidden by 2030, both renewable technologies and-to a lesser extent-fossil technologies with CO2 capture are found to increase their contribution to electricity production. The endogenous integration of life-cycle indicators into energy models proves to boost the usefulness of both life cycle assessment and energy systems modelling in order to support decision- and policy-making.
AB - Given the increasing importance of sustainability aspects in national energy plans, this article deals with the prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators of the power generation sector through the case study of Spain. A technology-rich, optimisation-based model for power generation in Spain is developed and provided with endogenous life-cycle indicators (climate change, resources, and human health) to assess their evolution to 2050. Prospective performance indicators are analysed under two energy scenarios: a business-as-usual one, and an alternative scenario favouring the role of carbon dioxide capture in the electricity production mix by 2050. Life-cycle impacts are found to decrease substantially when existing fossil technologies disappear in the mix (especially coal thermal power plants). In the long term, the relatively high presence of natural gas arises as the main source of impact. When the installation of new fossil options without CO2 capture is forbidden by 2030, both renewable technologies and-to a lesser extent-fossil technologies with CO2 capture are found to increase their contribution to electricity production. The endogenous integration of life-cycle indicators into energy models proves to boost the usefulness of both life cycle assessment and energy systems modelling in order to support decision- and policy-making.
KW - Electricity
KW - Energy planning
KW - Energy system model
KW - Life cycle assessment
KW - Life-cycle indicator
KW - Scenario analysis
KW - Sustainability
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85018219080
U2 - 10.3390/resources5040039
DO - 10.3390/resources5040039
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85018219080
SN - 2079-9276
VL - 5
JO - Resources
JF - Resources
IS - 4
M1 - 39
ER -
