Reserve fleet indexed to exogenous cost variables

Identifying the optimal time to replace a passenger bus in a buses fleet has implications on the size of the reserve fleet. Such calculations rest on endogenous and exogenous economic variables: the former include operating and maintenance costs and bus depreciation; the latter include market imponderables such as the inflation and real discount rates, as well as energy costs, particularly fuel. The authors have created models for the withdrawal/replacement of buses using endogenous economic variables. The models include standard econometric models reflecting the influence of maintenance policies, especially Condition Monitoring (CM) or predictive maintenance, and the size of the reserve fleet. The paper deals with exogenous economic variables, specifically the influence of the cost of money, the inflation and real discount rates rate and the cost of fuel. Both variables fluctuate over time. The paper proposes analytical models for determining the influence of those variables on the withdrawal time and the size of the reserve fleet. It then comprehensively summarizes the variables in a global model, showing its relevance to the dimensioning of the reserve fleet and the withdrawal time.