Uncertainty Estimation for Energy Consumption Nowcasting

Danel Rey-Arnal*, Ibai Laña*, Pablo G. Bringas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

In recent years nowcasting systems have been required to perform on more complex scenarios and to a better standard than ever. This work aims at studying the relation between the performance of an array of prediction models improved via data aggregation and the measurement of uncertainty and its potential shift as a consequence of such aggregation. In order to gauge the impact of this approach we propose an experimental framework in which the predictive capabilities of distinct modeling approaches in different aggregation circumstances, is assessed in conjunction with the study of model uncertainty measurements. The results show that the not only the aggregation level, but the modeling choice can have an impact in terms of uncertainty quantification, revealing different sizes of confidence intervals. These measurements represent a novel approach to the model and aggregation level selection process.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationDatabase and Expert Systems Applications - DEXA 2024 Workshops - IWCFS, AISys, CIU, Proceedings
EditorsBernhard Moser, Lukas Fischer, Anna-Christina Glock, Michael Mayr, Sabrina Luftensteiner, Atif Mashkoor, Johannes Sametinger
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages102-114
Number of pages13
ISBN (Print)9783031683015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024
Event9th International Workshop on Cyber-Security and Functional Safety in Cyber-Physical Systems, IWCFS 2024, 4th International Workshop on AI System Engineering: Math, Modelling and Software, AISys 2024, and 2nd International Workshop on Certainty in Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Approaches in AI, CIU 2024 held at the 35th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2024 - Naples, Italy
Duration: 26 Aug 202428 Aug 2024

Publication series

NameCommunications in Computer and Information Science
Volume2169 CCIS
ISSN (Print)1865-0929
ISSN (Electronic)1865-0937

Conference

Conference9th International Workshop on Cyber-Security and Functional Safety in Cyber-Physical Systems, IWCFS 2024, 4th International Workshop on AI System Engineering: Math, Modelling and Software, AISys 2024, and 2nd International Workshop on Certainty in Uncertainty: Exploring Probabilistic Approaches in AI, CIU 2024 held at the 35th International Conference on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 2024
Country/TerritoryItaly
CityNaples
Period26/08/2428/08/24

Keywords

  • Aggregation
  • Nowcasting
  • Uncertainty

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