An integrated econometric model for bus replacement and determination of reserve fleet size based on predictive maintenance

Maintenance policies influence equipment availability and, thus, they affect a company’s capacity for productivity and competitiveness. It is important to optimize the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of assets, in this case, passenger bus fleets. The paper presents a predictive condition monitoring maintenance approach based on engine oil analysis, to assess the potential impact of this variable on the availability of buses. The approach has implications on maintenance costs during the life of a bus and, consequently, on the determination of the best time for bus replacement. The paper provides an overview of economic replacement models through a global model, with an emphasis on availability and its dependence on maintenance and maintenance costs. These factors help to determine the size of the reserve fleet and guarantee availability.