Analysis of Near-Zero Prices in the Iberian Electricity Market and Their Impact on the Profitability of Renewable Photovoltaic Plants

The increasing occurrence of near-zero market prices in the wholesale electricity markets has raised concerns about the market capture rate and impact on the viability of Photovoltaic (PV) assets. This article aims to conduct a statistical analysis of the occurrence of near-zero day-ahead prices in the Iberian electricity market along 2024 and evaluate the correlation between prices and various technologies in the energy mix. There are 838 hours of the year below 1 €/MWh. During the spring months, day-ahead prices are significantly lower, especially at daylight. Looking at spring months, the findings suggest that wind power tends to decrease them. As can be concluded, there is a strong linear correlation between the thermal gap and market prices. Finally, this article addresses the impact of such prices on the profitability of PV plants. PV is not able to influence prices (negative Pearson coefficient), resulting in a capture rate of 65 %.