Reflecting the energy transition from a European perspective and in the global context—Relevance of solar photovoltaics benchmarking two ambitious scenarios

Multiple energy-related crises require a fast transition towards a sustainable energy system. The European Green Deal aims for zero CO₂ emission by 2050, while accelerating climate change impacts obligate a faster phase-out of fossil fuels. Energy transition studies for Europe at and near 100% renewable energy are used as a benchmark for two newly introduced scenarios for Europe reaching zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 and 2040. A technology-rich energy system model was applied in hourly resolution for Europe in 20 interconnected regions and in full sector coupling covering all energy demands. The results reveal a cost-neutral energy transition towards 2050 based on declining levelised cost of electricity and a pathway with 9% higher energy costs leading to 17% lower total CO₂ emissions with an accelerated energy transition by 2040. The two scenarios find shares of solar photovoltaic (PV) in total generation of 61%–63% by 2050, the highest ever estimated for Europe, still below the highest global average shares ranging between 75% and 77% form three independent studies. The central energy system components are solar PV, wind power, batteries, electrolysers and CO₂ direct air capture for carbon capture and utilisation. The core characteristic of the European energy future may be best described by a power-to-X economy, which may evolve on the global scale to a solar-to-X economy.