State and prospects of photovoltaic module waste generation in China, USA, and selected countries in Europe and South America

Photovoltaic (PV) waste mass presents an environmental challenge while the PV installation rate is growing globally. Therefore, the assessment of PV waste mass generation is important for managing PV recycling and the refurbishment of wear-out modules. In this study, PV waste mass generation is projected for 2030 and 2050 based on the historical data of cumulative PV capacity and the targets of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) for China, USA, Spain, Germany, France, Italy, the EU as a whole, the United Kingdom and some South American countries such as Brazil, Chile and Argentina. A projection for the cumulative installed power was calculated and compared to NECP targets, and this analysis shows that Germany accomplished 60% of its goal in 2021, followed by Argentina and China with 50% of their planned target achieved, while the furthest from its goal is the USA with 14%. For PV waste mass calculations, an updated equation is introduced for the power-to-mass conversion relation, and different reliability levels of the PV technology are taken into account by considering two degradation scenarios. Our results indicate that the European Union would generate more than 710 000 tonnes of cumulative PV waste mass in 2030, followed by China with around 265 000 tonnes, and the USA with 147 000 tonnes. This implies that in order to treat waste and also provide raw materials for the PV industry, the EU needs to become a stakeholder in the deployment of a solid recycling industry that is capable of managing a large mass of PV WEEE.